Duncan Lawrie Online ▼

Posted on: 09 November 2016


The bruising race to the White House is over and Donald Trump has been elected US President. The 45th US President will be sworn in at 12 noon on Friday 20 January 2017 and the term of President Barack Obama then expires.

In a surprise result, Donald Trump and the Republican Party have swept to victory in the 2016 US presidential campaign. Though the final analysis has yet to be completed, Hillary Clinton chose to concede when Trump exceeded 276 seats against her 218. The Republicans also romped to victory in the Senate and House of Representatives, and are likely to take the deciding seat in the Supreme Court, paving the way for a period of dominance for the Republican Party.

Trump defying expectations

The groundswell of support for Trump has largely come from a populist backlash against globalisation, which encouraged the offshoring of low skilled labour, higher corporate margins, and resulted in negative real wage growth for America’s working class. Trump’s policies are about rolling back the clock on globalisation, and the implications could be far-reaching.

Impact on positioning

In client portfolios, we have been cautiously positioned for some time, not because we expected this result but because there are a variety of risks facing markets and we felt that valuations did not offer adequate compensation to be bullish. We feel there is little value in making short-term decisions and in any event are somewhat doubtful of Trump’s ability to pass radical proposals through a sceptical Senate and House of Representatives.


All data has been compiled by Duncan Lawrie from sources believed to be reliable. Full details of sources are available on request.
The comments and figures in this document are generally applicable but you should always take specific advice to suit your individual circumstances before taking any action. Errors and omissions excepted.
The value of investments and income generated may fall as well as rise, and investors may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.